Historical Earnings Track Record and What It Means for SRE
Over the last eight reported quarters, SRE has beaten its consensus EPS estimate five times, for a beat rate of 5/8, or 71%. The average earnings surprise across those quarters is 2.6%, which shows a mild, positive reporting edge rather than a pattern of blowout numbers. Yet the post-earnings price follow-through has been notably weak: the average 5-day move in the five trading days after those reports is -0.17%, classified as “flat.” That mismatch is the central takeaway for anyone trying to trade SRE around events.
The most recent four quarters make this disconnect concrete. On 2026-05-07, SRE reported actual EPS of $1.51 versus an estimate of $1.51 for a 0% surprise; the stock fell -0.04% the next day but drifted +1.41% over the following five days. On 2026-02-26, actual EPS of $1.28 beat the $1.24 estimate by 3.2%, producing a +1.12% next-day pop that was entirely erased by a -1.32% five-day drift. On 2025-11-05, actual EPS of $1.11 crushed the $0.911 estimate by 21.8%, yet the stock rose only +0.42% the next day and finished basically flat with a +0.09% five-day gain. On 2025-08-07, actual EPS of $0.89 beat the $0.846 estimate by 5.2%, but the stock fell -1.07% the next day and -0.86% over the following five sessions. In other words, even clear beats have not consistently produced a pop-and-hold pattern.
What a Disciplined Trader Watches For
Given SRE’s history, a disciplined trader generally avoids assuming that a beat will automatically drive a sustained rally. The relevant checklist includes: the pre-event implied move versus the historical average reaction, the first trading day’s direction versus the 5-day follow-through, and whether the magnitude of any EPS surprise corresponds to a proportional price change. The 2025-11-05 quarter is the clearest example of why this matters: a 21.8% beat produced only a +0.42% next-day move and a flat five-day result.
Technical levels add context. At $88.55, SRE is trading below its 50-day EMA of $92.07, which can act as a magnet or resistance after the report. RSI at 37.0 suggests weakness but not capitulation, leaving room for either continuation lower or a momentum washout. A risk-aware approach is to wait for post-earnings price confirmation and volume rather than front-running the event based on the 71% beat rate alone. For a deeper dive into the setup, including the full institutional verdict and consensus breakdown, see the complete SRE earnings analysis page.
Frequently Asked Questions
How often has SRE beaten its EPS estimate over the past eight quarters?
SRE has beaten the consensus EPS estimate in 5 of the last 8 reported quarters, a beat rate of 71%, with an average earnings surprise of 2.6%.
What happened after SRE’s largest recent EPS beat?
On 2025-11-05, SRE reported actual EPS of $1.11 versus an estimate of $0.911, a 21.8% surprise. The stock rose only 0.42% the next day and gained just 0.09% over the following five trading days.
What is SRE’s average five-day post-earnings drift?
Across the last eight reported quarters, SRE’s average price change in the five trading days after earnings is -0.17%, which is classified as flat.
| Reported | Actual | Estimate | Surprise | 1D Move | 5D Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | $1.51 | $1.51 | 0% | -0.04% | +1.41% |
| 2026-02-26 | $1.28 | $1.24 | +3.2% | +1.12% | -1.32% |
| 2025-11-05 | $1.11 | $0.911 | +21.8% | +0.42% | +0.09% |
| 2025-08-07 | $0.89 | $0.846 | +5.2% | -1.07% | -0.86% |
| 2025-05-08 | $1.44 | $1.32 | +9.1% | - | - |
| 2025-02-25 | $1.5 | $1.47 | +2% | - | - |
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